Video: Thanksgiving travel forecast

By Sean O'Neill
October 3, 2012

Travel trends are easy to spot—in hindsight.

The sour economy was sure to put a damper on summer travel, as consumers cut back their spending. But what's in store for Thanksgiving holiday travel?

Nearly 20 percent of people who traveled last year plan to stay home this year, says a recent survey by American Express.

Fares are about the same as they were last year. But surcharges and fees are higher. If you're traveling the Sunday after Thanksgiving, expect to pay a $10 "holiday travel surcharge" for the privilege.

Another factor: You'll face new and growing fees for checked baggage—which earned the airlines an extra $1 billion so far this year. The typical fee for checking a bag is $15 each way. (See a list of baggage fees by airline at Airfarewatchdog.)

Airlines have cut flights and routes. That's making planes more crowded, with flights being, on average, 81 percent full in August, according to the International Air Transport Association.

I talked about these trends this morning on an MSNBC interview today.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News and News about the Economy

Looking ahead to next year, the price of an economy class ticket in the U.S. and Canada is expected to rise by between 2 and 7 percent, compared with this year's cost. Globally, fares for international travel will rise by 6 percent on average. Yet hotel rates will to continue to fall. Rental car rates will remain outrageous.

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Travel Tips

Naples: Ex-cons hired to help tourists

Gennaro Cesare grew up in a seedy part of Naples and spent years in and out of prison on drug-related charges. But for the past six months, the 36-year-old father of two has been wearing a different uniform—a neon yellow vest—as a participant in Escodentro. It's an experiment to rehabilitate petty criminals by employing them as guides stationed around Naples. (The €500 monthly salaries are funded by the region of Campania and the European Union.) Tourists wandering near Porta Capuana, an ancient city gate, have turned to Gennaro for directions and recommendations—he's even accompanied people to nearby Pizzeria Trianon, his favorite. One time there was a car accident in via Comunale, and, Salvatore, 47, called the police. Another time Salvatore intervened when someone's phone was being stolen. "If we see something abnormal, we say something to the police," he told me. "We use our street smarts." It's a controversial but seemingly win-win idea: ex-cons use their knowledge of Naples's underworld to keep people safe, while getting a salary, a sense of pride in their city, and a reason to collaborate with a former nemesis, the police At first the police put up a resistance, admitted Alessandro Maria Vecchione, head of an education agency that oversees Escodentro. But he told me there was an 80 percent decrease in crime between early June and mid-September—and that the remaining crimes tend to happen at night, when the guides are off duty. Tourists have written in thank-you letters and locals have circulated petitions to increase the guides' numbers and hours. "It's as if someone gave a societal identity to these people," said Vecchione. "They know that this is a second chance." The question now is whether these ex-cons will get a third chance. The pilot program ends today, and it's up to regional and state officials to decide whether to restart it. Social worker Riccio Gennaro, 45, himself a former prisoner, helps out the participants and said it would be a cruel hoax if the program wasn't extended. "Many of these guys are from the neighborhood, so people know them and are glad that they've got jobs," he told me. "Those who made mistakes have paid for them; Naples has to change, and we'll be the ones to change it."

Travel Tips

Paris: Loo-la-la! Toilets are hard to come by

When I first moved to Paris, someone told me that French women (in addition to not getting fat) don't pee. I had also read a book that counseled never to ask for the bathroom in somebody's home. Neither of these turned out to be entirely accurate. But it is true that the French more discreet about the callings of nature. Cultural sensitivities aside, travelers are obliged to make use of the local toilets. So when you gotta go in Paris, your options look like this: Find a free public toilet. There are public restrooms near the following tourist monuments: • Carrousel du Louvre — the world's greatest museum has a shopping mall beneath it, and that mall contains a bathroom. You'll find it near the entrance to the Palais Royal-Musée du Louvre Métro station (1st arrondissement). • Jardin des Tuileries — the toilet is inside the gardens near the corner of rue de Rivoli and the place de la Concorde (1st arrondissement). • Pompidou Center — the modern art museum has a public toilet on the entrance level that you can access without buying a ticket (3rd arrondissement). • Notre-Dame Cathedral — the public toilet is located outside and south of the cathedral — follow the signs to the "WC" (4th arrondissement). • Eiffel Tower — the "grey lady" has thoughtfully placed a toilet between her legs. It's on the right side if you're looking from the Champs de Mars (7th arrondissement). • Sacre-Coeur — the freestanding public toilet is located outside and just southwest of the basilica (18th arrondissement). Find a café. You have two options in a French café — either stop and buy a drink to "earn your right" to use the toilet, or else be sly about it. If you're paying, you can take your time in finding the toilet, asking your server for "les toilettes, s'il vous plait?" If you're not paying, you need to walk discreetly toward the back or basement of the café, looking for a WC sign to guide you. Act like a paying customer (perhaps one who is using the restroom before sitting down), not a charity case. If someone stops you, smile and ask for the toilets, but be prepared to pay for a coffee at the counter afterward as a courtesy. It is possible, although unlikely, that you'll encounter a Turkish toilet — a ceramic plated hole in the ground. If you're a girl, take my advice and get outta there. It's not possible to use a squat toilet and escape with dry ankles. Just find a different café. Find a McDonalds… or a Starbucks, or a KFC. Compared to a café, franchises are "anonymous" spaces and the employees (who are trapped behind their counter, anyway) can't tell whether you're a paying customer or not. Restrooms may be located one floor up or one floor down. They will never be Turkish. Find a sanisette. More than 400 self-cleaning pods are scattered around Paris, providing a space-age space to do your business. A sanisette bears little resemblance to a backwoods outhouse. The interior is fully cleaned after each session, and newer models include skylights and reservoirs that store rainwater for use in the toilet. Use an app to locate a nearby toilet. If you don't mind the potential charge from your cell phone service provider, fire up the latest smartphone (Blackberry or iPhone), which will give info suited to your exact location, so you never have to punch in zip codes or addresses. SitOrSquat (free) automatically points out nearby public restrooms and includes details such as whether they're open and if they have changing tables. It relies on user-submitted data, which can be a bit hit-or-miss, depending on your neighborhood. Find a wall…at your own risk. Men in France still unzip in the most unlikely of public places, but new sanctions are beginning to change that. Special walls around town are designed to splash the offending squirter, and the Brigade des Incivilités are issuing fines against anyone caught making urine sauvage. Check out this amusing video from the Wall Street Journal which follows Parisian cops looking for "crimes against hygiene." MORE FROM BUDGET TRAVEL How to behave in a Paris restaurant (50+ comments) Video: A silly toilet trick on an airplane Video: How to use a squat toilet Train toilet bites man