Spill your secrets about Knoxville

Today the dollar buys about half as much in 13 western European countries as it did in 2001. But it might regain some buying power soon. Today, you need $1.48 to buy a euro. But within a year's time, you may only need $1.39—or roughly 6 percent less, say surveys of economic forecasters by the Federal Reserve Board. That's not much of a gain, but at least it's something. Interestingly, U.S. hotels are slightly better off when the dollar is weak, not strong. Here's why: On average, hotels earn somewhat more money when a cheaper dollar attracts more visitors to our shores and encourages more Americans to travel within the U.S. instead of abroad, say researchers at PricewaterhouseCoopers. The hotels that gain the most from a weak dollar are in Las Vegas, New York City, and San Francisco. Why is the dollar dropping? You may have heard a sensational reason, namely, that fewer foreign banks, businesses, and governments are doing business in dollars. (In a classic example, a business in one country that buys a product from a business in another country may use dollars to do so, if it thinks that the dollar is a more convenient, stable currency than the local currencies.) Some U.S. analysts worry that if a critical mass of foreigners stop using the dollar—especially foreign banks that stockpile dollars as a way to guarantee of the value of their local currencies—large numbers of banks and countries will stop using the dollar. The value of the dollar could spiral downward, causing a variety of problems for Americans. Luckily, whether or not such a situation could become a reality, it seems that only a relatively small number of foreigners are switching to the euro and other currencies right now. The Economist recently printed a handy chart to show this point. About two-thirds of the world's money is kept in dollars today, which is roughly the same stockpile as in the early 1990s—and far more than in the 1980s. The dollar's recent troubles have had to do with temporary problems, such as the cuts in U.S. interest rates, the mortgage-industry crisis, and the drop in the value of U.S. debt for foreign investors. These problems will sort themselves out within the next year or two, according to The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, and the Financial Times. Is the dollar driving you out of Europe? How are exchange rates affecting your travel plans? And how are you keeping travel costs down? Feel free to post a comment below. EARLIERThe 2008 Hotels Forecast: What budget-minded travelers can expect. PHOTO BY AMagill via Flickr.

The most respected forecaster in the hotel industry is Bjorn Hanson of the accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers. His predictions are closely read by investors and hotel owners. He has earned trust by issuing annual forecasts that have proven more accurate than everybody else's for 16 out of the past 17 years. I wondered if Bjorn's 2008 forecast would be of interest to the average budget-conscious traveler. So I dropped by his annual press conference yesterday to find out. Here's what he said: —Expect the largest hotel chains to launch more small brands. For example, Best Western plans to debut a brand called Atria, featuring bigger lobbies than their standard hotels, and offering similar amenities to Courtyards by Marriott and Hilton Garden Inns. In 2008, the first Atrias are set to open in San Antonio, Texas, and New Bern, N.C. Another new brand--being launched in 2008 by independent investors, is CitiStay Hotels, loaded with modern architectural motifs and the latest technological gadgets but priced for budget-conscious twenty-somethings. —Expect more fees. Bjorn predicts hotels will charge about $1,900,000,000 in fees and surcharges for mini-bar restocking, baggage holding fees, in-room safe surcharges, and other services that used to be complimentary. He says that revenue from such fees should rise about 8 percent from this year's revenue. He also predicts increases in the number of hotels charging fees as well as increases in the amounts charged. He also predicts an increasing range of fees. Argh! —Expect room rates to rise, on average. Rates dropped dramatically after the events of 2001, only to return to their old levels this year, if you adjust rates for inflation. But this year, many hotels will start raising rates higher than they were in the last peak year of 2000. Profits this year are expected to be about $6,644 per available room on average, and will be strong again next year, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers research. So don't cry for the hotel owners. —You'll be seeing somewhat fewer mid-market hotels that offer food and beverage on their premises. This type of hotel chain, such as Holiday Inn, Doubletree, Ramada, and Quality Inn, is the only category of hotel chain that will receive fewer visitors next year. (By contrast, luxury, upscale, and economy class hotels will grow, both in visits and in the supply of rooms.) MORE ON HOTELS Pod hotels open this year inside London's Heathrow and Gatwick airports, for taking naps or staying overnight. At the Omni Houston, you'll never call the front desk again.